Ontario Releases 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances

Press Release

February 10, 2026

Government remains focused on protecting Ontario by building a more competitive, resilient and self-reliant economy

TORONTO — Today, the Ontario government released the 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances, to provide an update on the province’s economic and fiscal outlook since the release of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: A Plan to Protect Ontario also referred to as Fall Economic Statement or FES.

Despite global economic uncertainty, the results reflect the government’s responsible path to balance while continuing to make strategic investments to protect workers, support growth and keep costs down for families.

“Our government’s prudent fiscal plan is more important than ever, and it’s working. Ontario’s finances are in the strongest position they have been in over a decade,” said Peter Bethlenfalvy, Minister of Finance. “Having a strong balance sheet will allow us to act quickly to protect our workers and communities while making investments in strategic priorities to unleash our economy and make Ontario the most competitive place in the G7 to invest, create jobs and do business”.

Ontario’s real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5 per cent in the third calendar quarter, supported by gains in net trade. Ontario’s real GDP rose by an estimated 1.2 per cent in 2025, and net debt-to-GDP is now projected to be 36.9 per cent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points. Both of which are stronger than expected at the time of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review showing Ontario’s economic resilience in the face of U.S. tariffs.

As of the 2025–26 Third Quarter Finances, the province’s 2025–26 deficit is now projected to be $13.4 billion, while revenues are also projected to improve to $223.7 billion, $0.6 billion higher than expected in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

The government will provide its next update by March 31, 2026 as part of the 2026 Budget.

Quick Facts

Revenues in 2025–26 are projected to be $223.7 billion, $3.8 billion higher than forecasted in the 2025 Ontario Budget and $0.6 billion higher than expected in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
Program expense in 2025–26 is projected to be $219.9 billion, $3.6 billion higher than forecast in the 2025 Budget and $1.5 billion higher than the forecast in the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.
Interest and debt servicing charges are projected to be $16.2 billion, consistent with the forecast in the 2025 Budget and 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Ontario’s cost of borrowing for 2025–26 remains unchanged at 4.0 per cent.
The 2025 Ontario Budget included a $2.0 billion reserve in 2025–26 to protect the fiscal outlook against any unforeseen changes in the province’s revenue and expense forecasts, which has been drawn down to $1.0 billion as part of the current fiscal outlook.
Ontario’s real GDP rose by an estimated 1.2 per cent in 2025, which is higher than expected at the time of the 2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review.

Additional Resources

2025–26 Third Quarter Finances

2025 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review: A Plan to Protect Ontario

2025 Ontario Budget: A Plan to Protect Ontario

Ontario’s annual financial cycle

Quarterly Finances from previous years