Pembina Announces 2026 Guidance, Agreement for Cedar Capacity, and Business Update

Press Release

Mon, 15 Dec 2025

CALGARY, Alberta Pembina Pipeline Corporation (“Pembina” or the “Company”) (TSX: PPL; NYSE: PBA) announced today its 2026 financial guidance, a commercial agreement for Cedar LNG capacity, and an expansion of the Peace Pipeline System to support growing customer demand.

Highlights

• 2026 Guidance – adjusted EBITDA of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion reflects an approximately four percent increase in fee-based adjusted EBITDA over the forecast for 2025. At the midpoint of the 2026 guidance range, growth in the fee-based business is expected to be offset by a moderated contribution from the marketing business based on current strip pricing for 2026. Pembina’s capital investment program is expected to total approximately $1.6 billion.
• Three Year Guidance Reaffirmed – the midpoint of the 2026 guidance range represents 2023 to 2026 fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share compound annual growth of approximately five percent, positioning Pembina to deliver on the target provided at its 2024 Investor Day. Further, Pembina’s 2024 to 2026 capital investment program remains internally self-funded. Pembina intends to extend its long-term growth guidance for the post-2026 timeframe in the first quarter of 2026 following advancement of certain key growth initiatives.
• Cedar LNG – Pembina has signed a 12-year agreement with Ovintiv Inc. (“Ovintiv”) for 0.5 million tonnes per annum (“mtpa”) to complete the remarketing of Pembina’s 1.5 mtpa of capacity at the Cedar LNG facility, further demonstrating its commitment to delivering growth and executing its strategy within the Company’s long-standing financial guardrails and prudent risk profile.
• Conventional Pipeline Expansions and Commercial Success – Pembina has approved a $200 million expansion of the Peace Pipeline System to increase propane-plus market delivery capacity into the Namao, Alberta hub. Progress on the northeast British Columbia expansion program, including the Birch-to-Taylor and Taylor-to-Gordondale expansions continues, and Pembina intends to commence construction in a phased manner to meet customer needs for liquids egress. Throughout 2025, in support of utilization of existing assets and future expansion opportunities, Pembina has renewed existing contracts, and executed incremental new contracts, totaling over 200,000 barrels per day (“bpd”) of conventional pipeline transportation capacity.
• Greenlight Electricity Centre – Pembina and Kineticor continue to observe positive momentum towards the development of the Greenlight Electricity Centre. The previously announced land sale has closed, and the partners continue to progress workstreams that include finalizing commercial agreements with the customer, engineering, procurement and regulatory. A final investment decision is expected in the first half of 2026.

CEO Comment

As we exit 2025, we are experiencing record throughput on the Peace Pipeline System and high utilization across our entire asset base. Moving forward into 2026, Pembina stands at the heart of one of the most significant energy transformations in North America. The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin continues to experience robust production growth driven by new LNG and LPG export capacity, expanded oil egress, and evolving energy demands. Supporting this growth outlook, Pembina has observed a shift in tone from policy makers that could positively impact how the Canadian energy industry evolves. At both the federal and provincial level, there is momentum building towards reshaping Canada’s energy strategy in a way that could unlock Canada’s abundant and diverse energy resources.

Pembina’s strategy remains clear and focused: to provide safe, reliable, and cost-effective energy infrastructure solutions that connect producers to high value markets. I am particularly proud that Pembina continues to deliver on its promises. Our 2026 financial guidance positions us to meet the 3-year growth and funding targets we set at our 2024 Investor Day, and our latest Cedar LNG capacity agreement fulfills our commitment to deliver strategic growth within our financial guardrails and prudent risk profile. In addition, throughout 2025, we continued to demonstrate our strong track record of safe, on-time and on-budget project execution, while advancing development and sanctioning new projects to support future growth. We continue to enhance our competitive service offering and overall resilience through targeted productivity and cost efficiencies. Finally, our continued commercial successes highlight the value our customers continue to place on Pembina’s service offering and we are grateful for the trust they have in us as their infrastructure partner.

I am filled with confidence and optimism about Pembina’s future. Our company stands at a pivotal moment, uniquely positioned to capitalize on the evolving energy landscape and the growing demand for reliable, integrated midstream infrastructure.

Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer

2026 Guidance

Pembina expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion, reflecting the net impact of an approximately four percent increase in fee-based adjusted EBITDA and a moderated outlook for the marketing business, relative to the forecast for 2025. Further, the midpoint of the 2026 guidance range represents 2023 to 2026 fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share compound annual growth of approximately five percent, positioning the Company to deliver on the target range provided at its 2024 Investor Day. The constructive growth in fee-based adjusted EBITDA reflects growing volumes and commercial successes across Pembina’s systems, the positive impact of acquisitions at Pembina Gas Infrastructure (“PGI”), the consolidation of interests in Alliance Pipeline and Aux Sable, and margin enhancement through targeted productivity and cost efficiencies, partially offset by the impact of the previously announced negotiated settlement between Alliance and certain shippers and interested parties (the “Alliance Settlement”).

The mid-point of the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range includes a contribution from the Marketing & New Ventures segment of $345 million based on current commodity strip pricing.

The lower and upper ends of the 2026 guidance range are framed primarily as a function of (1) commodity prices and the resulting contribution from the marketing business; (2) interruptible volumes on key systems; and (3) the U.S./Canadian dollar exchange rate.

The 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range reflects quarterly seasonal and other factors including:

• Stronger first and fourth quarter results in the NGL marketing business.
• The placement into service throughout the year of new assets currently under construction, including the Wapiti Expansion and the K3 Cogeneration Facility in the first quarter, and RFS IV in the second quarter.
• Higher integrity and geotechnical costs on the conventional pipeline assets in the third and fourth quarters.
• Higher contribution from Alliance in the first and fourth quarters due to the ability to transport higher volumes during colder periods.
• Higher integrity and maintenance activities on the Cochin Pipeline in the second and third quarters.

Drivers of 2026 Fee-based Adjusted EBITDA

Major factors driving the growth in the midpoint of the 2026 fee-based adjusted EBITDA guidance range compared to the forecast for 2025 include:

• Lower contribution from the Alliance Pipeline (approximately $140 million) due to the impact on Alliance Canada of the Alliance Settlement, including revised tolls and the new revenue sharing provision, and lower revenue from Alliance U.S. These factors are being partially offset by a continuation of the high utilization experienced in 2025 and higher seasonal and interruptible revenue due to higher tolls.
• Higher contribution (approximately $80 million) from other assets in the Pipelines Division, namely the Peace Pipeline, the Nipisi Pipeline, and the Cochin Pipeline. A higher contribution from these assets is roughly evenly split between volume and margin growth.
• Higher contribution from the Facilities Division (approximately $185 million). The increase includes a higher contribution from PGI (approximately $115 million), primarily as a result of the Wapiti Expansion and K3 Cogeneration Facility entering service, contributions from assets entering service related to previously disclosed infrastructure funding agreements with certain customers, higher volumes at the Dawson Assets and Duvernay facilities, fewer planned and unplanned outages, and fewer third-party restrictions. The increased contribution from Facilities also reflects the RFS IV Expansion entering service, including the related increase in storage and terminalling activity.
• Lower expenses in the Corporate segment (approximately $20 million) based on productivity and cost efficiencies across the business.

Drivers of 2026 Marketing Adjusted EBITDA

In 2022 to 2024, Pembina’s marketing business contributed results above the long-run average due to strong NGL pricing, robust differentials in the crude oil complex, depressed western Canadian natural gas prices, and significant short-term commodity price movements driving additional margin realization. In 2025, moderation of NGL pricing, along with strengthening western Canadian natural gas prices are driving marketing results closer to the mid-point of the long-term range. Looking forward to 2026, current forward strip pricing reflects key price spreads for Pembina’s marketing business which are below 2025 averages and at the lower end of the long-term historical range.

The outlook for an approximately $150 million lower contribution from Marketing & New Ventures in 2026 is primarily a result of lower frac spreads due to lower NGL prices and higher natural gas prices (approximately $105 million) and narrower margins and reduced blending opportunities in crude oil marketing (approximately $40 million).

Pembina has hedged approximately 30 percent of its frac spread exposure for the first half of 2026. The weighted average price of Pembina’s current frac spread hedges, excluding transportation and processing costs, is approximately C$29.30 per barrel, which aligns closely to the prevailing 2026 forward price at the beginning of December 2025. Pembina expects to hedge approximately 30 percent of its full year 2026 frac spread exposure and to reach that target by the end of the first quarter.

2026 Adjusted EBITDA Sensitivities

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